DTN Midday Livestock Comments          09/12 12:25

   Cattle Find Support Thursday While Hogs Regress 

   There's a single bid of $181 being offered in Texas, but otherwise the cash 
cattle market sits idle. 

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   It is a mixed day for the livestock complex as the cattle contracts are 
trading moderately higher but the lean hog complex is chopping sideways. The 
cash cattle market still hasn't seen packer interest improve much, but that 
could change Thursday afternoon. December corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and 
December soybean meal is up $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 
42.40 points.

   Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 11,400 metric tons 
(mt) for 2024 were down 31% from the previous week and 41% from the prior 
4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (3,200 mt), Mexico 
(1,900 mt) and Japan (1,500 mt). Pork net sales of 29,700 mt for 2024 were up 
43% from the previous week and 15% from the prior 4-week average. The three 
largest buyers were Mexico (14,200 mt), Japan (4,300 mt) and Colombia (2,400 
mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

   Slowly but surely the live cattle complex is continuing to trend higher as 
traders are seeming to dip their toes back into the live cattle market 
following last week's derailment. October live cattle are up $1.12 at $178.07, 
December live cattle are up $1.17 at $178.35, and February live cattle are up 
$0.92 at $179.25. The spot October contract remains a sizeable distance from 
the market's 100-day moving average, so technical resistance shouldn't be an 
issue throughout the day. More than anything, the market's fate -- higher or 
lower close -- remains in control of traders as they patiently wait to see how 
the cash cattle market pans out this week as they're desperate for some better 
fundamental support. At this point, the cash cattle market remains silent with 
only a bid in Texas on the table at $181 -- which feedlot managers aren't 
overly impressed with. Southern asking prices remain firm at $182-plus and are 
still not established in the North. With lighter showlists in all major feeding 
regions, it's likely the week's cash cattle trade could be delayed until Friday 
as feedlot managers aim to keep prices steady this week. There were a handful 
of cattle traded in the South on Wednesday afternoon at $181, which is steady 
to $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average.

   Thursday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets of 
2024. Beef production for 2024 was raised by 59 million pounds as cow slaughter 
in the second half of the year is expected to increase, and fed steer and 
heifer carcass weights are heavier. It was disappointing to see projected fed 
cattle prices were decreased while beef imports for both 2024 and 2025 were 
increased. Third quarter steer prices in 2024 are expected to average $188 
(down $5.00 from last month) and fourth quarter steer prices are expected to 
average $183 (down $7.00 from last month). In 2025, steer prices in the first 
quarter are now expected to average $186 (down $3.00 from last month) and steer 
prices in the second quarter are expected to average $196 (down $4.00 from last 
month). 2024 beef imports increased by 140 million pounds, and beef exports for 
2024 increased by 50 million pounds. Beef imports for 2025 increased by 10 
million pounds, and beef exports for 2025 were increased by 100 million pounds.

   Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.44 ($307.80) and select up $1.44 
($295.82) with a movement of 77 loads (57.66 loads of choice, 9.40 loads of 
select, zero loads of trim and 9.74 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   With the help of the live cattle complex's higher tone, the feeder cattle 
contracts are continuing to trade higher. October feeders are up $1.50 at 
$239.00, November feeders are up $0.97 at $235.00, and January feeders are up 
$0.90 at $230.45. It is worth noting that traders did advance the spot October 
contract beyond the market's resistance at $240 but have since worked the 
contract back below that threshold. That will continue to be a threshold worth 
monitoring -- and there's a chance that if cash cattle prices trade steady 
traders could muster up enough support to comfortably advance the market beyond 
its immediate resistance.

LEAN HOGS:

   The lean hog complex is merely chopping sideways as the market seems unfazed 
by the morning's relatively strong export report and by stronger midday pork 
cutout values. October lean hogs are up $0.15 at $79.90, December lean hogs are 
down $0.15 at $72.15, and February lean hogs are down $0.25 at $75.57. At this 
point the market seems lackluster and as if little will rally traders 
throughout the afternoon.

   The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 9/11/2024 is down $0.11 at $85.35 and 
the actual index for 9/10/2024 is down $0.10 at $85.46. Hog prices on the Daily 
Direct Moring Hog report average $76.72, ranging from $74.00 to $79.00 on 1,343 
head and a five-day rolling average of $77.38. Pork cutouts total 186.91 loads 
with 155.87 loads of pork cuts and 31.04 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up 
$1.97, $94.88.

   Thursday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the pork and hog markets of 
2024. Pork production for 2024 was increased by 5 million pounds as faster 
chain speeds in the second half of the year more than offset the industry's 
lighter carcass weights. The market didn't see much for changes in quarterly 
barrow and gilt prices as the third quarter of 2024 is expected to average $63 
and fourth quarter barrow and gilt prices are expected to average $54 -- both 
of which are unchanged from a month ago. However, price projections for the 
first half of 2025 did increase as the first quarter barrow and gilt prices are 
expected to average $55 (up $1.00) and prices in the second quarter are 
expected to average $61 (up $1.00). 2024 pork imports were unchanged from a 
month ago, but pork exports for 2024 were increased by 60 million pounds. Pork 
imports for 2025 decreased by 10 million pounds, and pork exports for 2025 were 
unchanged.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com

   **

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discussion about the report at 12:30 p.m. To register for the free webinar, go 
to https://www.dtn.com/wasde-webinars/

    

    




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